20 reasons for Tigers fans to reign optimistic in 2025

5. The rest of the rotation, especially uber-prospect Jackson Jobe

The consensus best pitching prospect in the game today, Jobe has both the triple-digit velocity and the nasty stuff to become a dominant starter in “The Show” like his teammate Skubal. However, the 2021 first-round/No. 3 draft pick might need a little more seasoning before he can fully harness his awesome talent.

Returnee Jack Flaherty, of course, had a hellacious first half with Detroit a year ago, though his second act in L.A., especially in October, wasn’t so terrific. The Tigers don’t need Flaherty to repeat his 2024 dominance, as long as he takes the ball every fifth day and keeps them in the game.

Reese Olson and Casey Mize both have the potential to be 15-game winners, and both will get that chance. Neither is guaranteed success, but both have the stuff and the experience to step up a level this year.

1. Baseball-Reference.com has picked the Tigers to win the AL Central

There are a lot of projection systems out there; all of them basically work the same way: factor in recent player performances and injuries, assume regression toward the mean (especially for outstanding or terrible performances the previous year), and project who will get the most playing time at each position. Not only did the world’s most important and influential baseball website pick Detroit to win the Central this year (as of March 19; odds are updated daily), but it also predicted the Tigers will get a crucial first-round bye in October, thereby upping their chances of surviving the multi-tiered postseason structure and landing in the World Series.

2. 1968 & 1984 precedents

Legendary longtime Tigers president and general manager Jim Campbell was a young 38 when he took the reins in 1962. Campbell built and traded his way to the 1968 world championship, though that powerful team won only one division title afterward in 1972. Campbell also built the famous core of the 1984 championship club: Jack Morris, Dan Petry, Lance Parrish, Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Chet Lemon, and Kirk Gibson — all homegrown except for Lemon, who was acquired in an astute, straight-up swap for a homegrown Tigers player. Campbell’s hand-picked successor, Bill Lajoie, made several key moves in the 1983-’84 offseason to make what was already a very good team into a dominant one. There are many parallels between the 1968 and 1984 Tigers and the 2025 Bengals, beginning with a very strong starting staff.

3. 1984 & 1968 prognostications

Way back before the World Wide Web, Baseball-Reference, and MLB.com were born, newsstands and bookstores were full of special spring editions of sports magazines previewing the upcoming baseball season. That was also when major publishers printed expensive 2,000-page baseball encyclopedias so fans could find out the stats and records for every ballplayer and team in major-league history. Pete Palmer, baseball historian and co-editor of Total Baseball and the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, kept track of the predictions in these preseason annual magazines for decades. A look back at what experts thought of the Tigers before the 1968 and 1984 seasons is instructive.

The experts — mostly veteran baseball writers — predicted that the Baltimore Orioles, who had won the AL pennant in 1983, would repeat in 1984. Of the 17 magazines Palmer tracked, only three picked the Tigers; the other 14 tabbed the Orioles. The Tigers won the AL East that year by 15 games before sweeping the Royals in three games in the ALCS and crushing the Padres in five games in the World Series. Preseason favorite Baltimore finished fifth, 19 games behind Detroit.

In 1968, the expert opinions of baseball writers in the so-called “Bible of Baseball,” The Sporting News, anointed the Minnesota Twins as the favorites, with the Tigers picked for second place in the American League (that was the last year before divisional play). Only one of nine preseason annuals picked the Tigers to win the pennant. That summer, the Tigers crushed their AL competition, finishing 12 games ahead of the Orioles before outlasting the St. Louis Cardinals — who had won two world championships in the previous four years — in a thrilling, seven-game Series. Preseason favorite Minnesota came in seventh, 24 games back.

The lesson here is not to take too seriously various predictions out there showing the Tigers finishing second, third, or fourth in the Central. This is a young team that is highly likely to improve and has a chance to make a great leap forward, just like the 1968 and 1984 Tigers.

4. Ace of Aces Tarik Skubal

Skubal made his major-league debut at 23; and had his first decent year at 25. He is a true rara avis — dominant at 26 and a unanimous Cy Young Award winner at 27. The Tigers’ stellar rotation anchor was often said to be the best pitcher in baseball last year, though that’s unfair to Atlanta’s Chris Sale, who was just as good in 2024.

Sale’s career provides an object lesson as to both the promise and the peril of Skubal’s future. From 2012 through 2018, when Sale was 23 to 29 years old, the White Sox southpaw was elite, making the All-Star team for seven consecutive seasons while receiving significant support in the Cy Young balloting every year (although he didn’t win his first Cy until 2024).

That’s the promise. The peril? From 2019 through 2023, Sale suffered through five years of injuries and/or subpar performances until his huge comeback last season.

While it’s not impossible to imagine that Detroit’s enlightened management team can craft a deal that will lock Skubal up, the Tigers’ ace will probably test his market value via free agency after the 2026 season. That makes it imperative that the Tigers go all-out this year and next — so long as they don’t materially damage their long-term chances. President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris knows that, and you can be assured he is planning with those parameters in mind. The six-year, $171 million offer Harris made to free agent Alex Bregman, with an opt-out only after the second year, showed that.

6. The bullpen depth, despite the paucity of strikeout artists

The bevy of relative unknowns lurking in the Detroit ’pen may lack a traditional, lights-out closer, yet there are a lot of useful tools for Tigers manager A.J. Hinch to employ in the last four innings. Exhibit A is the way Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter brilliantly played chess with their bullpen during last year’s August-September “pitching chaos” run. A key question is whether versatile lefty Tyler Holton can continue to be called upon in every conceivable situation while replicating the elite level of performance that he turned in last year and in 2023.

7. The outfield defense

Although the 2024 alterations made the Comerica Park pasture somewhat smaller, the Tigers are unlikely to thrive without outfielders who can go and get ’em. Riley Greene and Parker Meadows are budding Gold Glovers in left field and center, respectively, and Wenceel Perez and Kerry Carpenter are adequate in right.

Harris is acutely aware of this, and he has emphasized how Detroit’s fielders must aid and protect their pitching staff. The Tigers’ catchers are both solid defenders; regrettably, the infield ‘D’ is currently suspect at all four positions. Nonetheless, fans can expect to see better than average glovework overall as Hinch evaluates if he needs to replace anyone or move fielders around to shore up the infield defense.

8. The crop report

The composite ranking from five respected sources rated Detroit’s farm system this spring at 3.8 (effectively, fourth-highest), by far the best it has been in the last 11 years. Two notes: FanGraphs’ unreleased rankings were not included. And you will hear many times that Detroit has the No. 1 farm system in MLB, but only MLB Pipeline ranked the Tigers that high. The other four expert rankers were not quite as impressed, with Baseball America putting Detroit second; ESPN, third; Baseball Prospectus, sixth; and The Athletic’s Keith Law, seventh. (Several of these sites require subscriptions.)

This is a very big deal, as Detroit hasn’t been this highly regarded since 2021, when both MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs ranked the Bengals second and their composite ranking was 5.8 (effectively sixth-highest). Unfortunately, those crystal balls weren’t exactly clear, as both had Torkelson at the top (No. 3 and No. 9 best prospect in the game, respectively), well ahead of Riley Greene. Worse, both put other Detroit pitchers ahead of Skubal, with MLB ranking Mize No. 11 and Skubal No. 24, while FanGraphs put Matt Manning at No. 18 and Skubal at No. 22. C’est la vie.

The Tigers’ organization can now boast of a long list of blue-chippers awaiting their chance, all of whom appeared on at least one Top 100 MLB Prospects list this spring (listed in order of where they’re expected to begin the 2025 minor-league season):

• 3B Jace Jung, Triple-A Toledo
• SP Troy Melton, Double-A Erie
• CF Max Clark, High-A West Michigan
• SS Kevin McGonigle, High-A West Michigan
• C Thayron Liranzo, High-A West Michigan
• SP Jaden Hamm, High-A West Michigan
• C Josue Briceno, Low-A Lakeland
• SS Bryce Rainer, Low-A Lakeland

9. The farm system’s depth

Aside from the blue-chippers, the Tigers’ organization includes a passel of potentially useful lesser prospects and so-called “4A” players. These are the guys who aren’t going to fill regular roles on a pennant-bound squad, but they represent valuable insurance when injuries and late-season fatigue take their toll and emergency help is needed.

Think of on-the-bubble players like Justyn-Henry Malloy, faded prospects like Matt Manning, overachievers like Hao-Yu Lee, and grizzled veterans like Andrew Chafin. Meh, you say? The 2024 Tigers got meaningful mileage out of reclamation projects like Carson Kelly; lower-ranked prospects like Brant Hurter, Keider Montero, and Wenceel Perez; and not-even-ranked minor-leaguers like Sean Guenther.

Harris and his brain trust have so far shown an astute eye for finding unrecognized potential and unrealized talent, and Hinch and Fetter have demonstrated a knack for putting those players in roles where they can succeed while minimizing their exposure to situations where they will fail.

10. Low injury rate because of the youth and athleticism of the roster

It may seem improbable now, but Detroit’s lineup and staff are very young and less susceptible to break down as the six-month season grinds on. Even after spring injuries to Alex Cobb, Matt Vierling, Parker Meadows, and Wenceel Perez, the Tigers should experience less carnage in 2025 than most MLB clubs, especially those clubs who depend on mature stars with a lot of mileage on their odometers. Harris and Hinch have been conservative in rehabbing injured players, choosing to delay reactivation in order to reduce the chances of reinjuring the affected body part.

Of the projected 14 regulars (four starting pitchers, most important reliever, and nine position players), only two are 30 or older — Jake Rogers and whoever gets the most time at the hot corner unless Jace Jung ultimately gets the job. Moreover, almost half of Detroit’s regulars are 25 or younger: SP Olson, SP Jobe, 1B Colt Keith, SS Trey Sweeney, LF Greene, CF Meadows, and DH Spencer Torkelson. This is an important, though very underrated factor with all the palaver about “veteran leadership” obscuring the value of youth.

11. Wunderkind Scott Harris

When Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch in September 2022 tabbed 35-year-old San Francisco GM Scott Harris to lead his disappointing club into the future, he was going against the grain of Detroit history. The Tigers have been one of the most successful American League franchises in their 125-year existence, but they have mostly hewed to the conservative side when making major decisions. Therefore, hiring a young executive who had never led an MLB front office — Harris served underneath a president of baseball operations with the Giants, just as Tigers GM Jeff Greenberg now serves under Harris — was the kind of risk that Detroit ownership would normally pass over. Detroit’s previous general manager, Al Avila, was 57 when he succeeded Dave Dombrowski late in 2015.

As evident now, the risk was well worth it, and it was a master stroke on Ilitch’s part to hire someone who looks, sounds, and acts like a certified genius. Not only has Harris revived the flagging fortunes of the tortuously slow rebuilding process, but the attractive young squad the Tigers put on the field has also revived badly flagging enthusiasm in Detroit’s loyal but recently skeptical fanbase.

Perhaps it was the bitter memory of the last time Detroit took a flier on a rising young executive that led ownership to go for an experienced executive in Dombrowski in 2002, and for a safe but uninspired internal hire in 2015.

Harris is the Tigers’ first young general manager since ill-fated 29-year-old Randy Smith was brought in from San Diego in 1996 — but Smith was merely a legacy who had risen to his level of incompetence. (Smith’s father, Tal Smith, was a longtime executive with the Yankees and Astros.)

Smith quickly earned a good reputation with the Padres by carrying out a fire sale of expensive veterans after he took over in 1993, acquiring a pile of young prospects in return. After taking over the Tigers, he followed a similar blueprint in preparation for the opening of Comerica Park in 2000. Stocking the larder with prospects acquired via trades and the premium draft picks Detroit’s lowly finishes bestowed on him, Smith was named AL Executive of the Year for 1997 by Baseball America, which simultaneously named the Tigers Organization of the Year.

Stockpiling largely untested talent for the future is not the same as winning in the major leagues, as Smith — like many other GMs who quite easily could dump veteran salaries for inexpensive youngsters — would soon find out. None of the prospects Smith acquired would prove to be stars of the first order, and few could be considered stars of the second order. Smith cemented his doom by gambling on the acquisition of two-time American League MVP Juan Gonzalez to lead the Tigers in the inaugural season at their new home.

It was a bad gamble that turned into a disaster. Gonzalez was a slow-footed slugger who had already peaked before he was traded. His brief tenure in Tigertown was marked by surliness, injury, and underperformance. Tigers fans were only too happy to watch him spurn an insanely generous long-term contract offer from Smith in order to test free agency after 2000. While Gonzo rebounded nicely in Cleveland in 2001, it proved to be his last good season.

Proof that everyone else in baseball understood that Smith was an abject failure in Detroit can be found in the fact that he was never given another chance to lead an MLB club after being fired six games into the 2002 season.

Dombrowski, at 31, became the youngest GM ever in AL/NL history when he was appointed to lead the Montreal Expos in midseason 1988. When he arrived to Detroit in 2002, he was only 45, yet he already had 14 years of experience running MLB organizations.

12. Manager A.J. Hinch

While most Tigers fans felt Hinch got jobbed when he wasn’t picked as AL Manager of the Year last fall, the Indians’ Stephen Vogt was a meritorious selection. Only 51, with at least a decade more in the dugout ahead of him, Hinch is on a Hall of Fame path unless the Astros’ 2017 cheating scandal sours the voters toward him.

Hinch has one world championship and one AL pennant under his belt, and he performed magic with the callow Tiger cubs he managed in 2024. Like Hall of Fame skipper Jim Leyland, Hinch maintains the respect of his players and knows how to handle the media — one of the critical tasks contemporary managers must master if they are to build longevity. Unlike Leyland, however, Hinch has a mastery of advanced analytics and knows how to impart the edge modern metrics can give players without alienating them.

13. Pitching coach Chris Fetter

In the vanguard of college pitching gurus who have invaded MLB and revolutionized the art of coaching hurlers, Fetter may just be the best of the bunch. It’s very hard analytically to separate out the effect coaches have on their players’ performances, but Fetter is a genius and an integral part of the Harris & Hinch regime.

14. Ryan Garko

Assistant GM and VP of Player Development Ryan Garko is now in his fourth full campaign in charge of Detroit’s critical player-development system. A late hire by former GM Al Avila in 2021, Garko is widely regarded as one of the best in his job, and the team he’s assembled has supercharged Detroit’s minor-league system so that it produces more major-leaguers out of the raw material (players) that it drafts, signs, and trades for. The Tigers’ front office had often been criticized during the Dombrowski and Avila eras as being inept in developing the young players in the Detroit system.

15. The White Sox

Because there is no relegation in MLB, Chicago remains a member of the AL Central division, despite losing an all-time record 121 games last year. Therefore, Detroit, Cleveland, KC, and Minnesota will again get to fatten their records for the Wild Card sweepstakes by beating up on the Sad Sox this summer.

16. Riley Greene

At 24, Greene already has the equivalent of two full seasons of big-league ball under his belt. He’s a perennial All-Star on the rise and a potential MVP who hasn’t even entered his prime years yet.

17. Kerry Carpenter

Once unknown, now merely underrated, Carpenter’s OPS+ of 159 last year shows just how lethal his bat has become. Even if he doesn’t learn to hit portsiders, his stick is crucial to bolstering the team’s attack, which was tied for 19th in MLB in Runs per Game in 2024. If Carpenter stays healthy, he will rake.

18. Colt Keith

The precocious 22-year-old showed amazing resilience in his rookie season after being handed the keystone sack job on Opening Day. With only 67 games of Triple-A experience, Keith struggled mightily in his first 30 appearances, hitting only a buck-52 with a .399 OPS. In 117 games after May 5, he quickly learned to adapt and hit .284 with a .758 OPS, improving until he was no longer overmatched by enemy pitchers — some of whom were old enough to be his father. Bet on the overachieving 2020 fifth-rounder to have a breakout season in 2025 unless the defensive strain of learning a new position (first base) interferes.

19. Spencer Torkelson

After losing his first-base position and being told that he would have to earn his way onto the Tigers’ roster in spring training, Torkelson refocused his approach in the offseason. Now with a substantially more disciplined attitude, the ballyhooed former 1/1 pick of the 2020 draft may realize the vast potential that he himself, along with the pundits and the Tigers’ brass, once assumed to be a sure thing.

Thus far, based on his Florida performance and his first three games against the Dodgers, Torkelson’s hard work looks like it’ll pay off. A big year from Tork will boost Detroit’s chances significantly, as one of the Tigers’ weaknesses has been a lack of punch from the right side of the plate. Last year, the Tabbies were 14% below league average in OPS+ against lefties, an obvious area for improvement.

20. Dan Dickerson and Jason Benetti

After celebrating his 25th season behind the mic in the Comerica Park home radio booth, Detroit’s voice of summer Dan Dickerson should be in line for a prestigious Ford C. Frick Award soon. He certainly deserves it.

Young, engaging, and witty, Jason Benetti came over from Chicago’s South Side in 2024, proving that the White Sox don’t know how to judge talent in the broadcast booth any better than on the field.

The foremost expert on the history of baseball team broadcasting, Stuart Shea, says of Detroit’s two superb mikemen, “Few other teams have a great radio voice and a great television voice. Who else? Right now, only the Mets and Giants.” Tigers fans are very lucky to have such a knowledgeable and entertaining pair of pros to shepherd them through the season.