The time has arrived for the 97th Annual Academy Awards and you have more options than ever to watch them. This year, you can stream it live on Hulu for the first time ever, or you can watch it on TV like our forefathers did before us (starting at 7 p.m. EST on Sunday, March 2). However you decide to watch it (or not watch it at all like most normal people), I hope you’ll take the time to laugh at me as I once again attempt to prognosticate the winners through my advanced ability of nerd, geek, and dork.
This is the dozenth or so year I’ve attempted this and, incredibly, do not seem to be getting any better at predicting what Academy voters actually enjoyed (or really just took the time to watch). Once again, I’ve divided my guesses into what should win vs. what will win, but with so many of the nominees this year coming from movies I genuinely enjoyed, so mostly I’ll be happy no matter who takes home the little bald man. Let’s get into it.
Actor in a leading role
Nominees:
Adrien Brody
The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet
A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo
Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes
Conclave
Sebastian Stan
The Apprentice
Who will win: Adrien Brody. His work in The Brutalist is monumental and deserves recognition.
Who should win: Brody. But if Fiennes or Domingo took it, I’d be so happy. Fiennes does work unlike any we’ve seen from him before and Domingo is such a gentle and moving artist that it’s impossible not to root for him.
Actor in a supporting role
Nominees:
Yura Borisov
Anora
Kieran Culkin
A Real Pain
Edward Norton
A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce
The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong
The Apprentice
Who will win: Culkin. He builds such a jagged edged empathic character that it feels like we’re watching a tightrope walker dance over a bonfire.
Who should win: Culkin. He captures something singular in A Real Pain, but I sure love Borisov in Anora. In many ways it doesn’t even feel like the movie starts until he shows up.
Actress in a leading role
Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo
Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón
Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison
Anora
Demi Moore
The Substance
Fernanda Torres
I’m Still Here
Who will win: Moore. The academy loves a comeback almost as much as it loves a beautiful person under a bunch of prosthetic makeup. Also, it probably is the best performance of her career.
Who should win: I’m rooting for Moore just because of how much I love The Substance, but part of me really hopes Madison gets the upset. She paints with the entire palate.
Actress in a supporting role
Nominees:
Monica Barbaro
A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande
Wicked
Felicity Jones
The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini
Conclave
Zoe Saldaña
Emilia Pérez
Who will win: Rossellini. She maybe has a dozen lines of dialogue in the entire film, yet they convey a thousand years of patriarchal servitude in just a glance.
Who should win: Probably Rossellini, but Jones’s work is for the ages and flawlessly calibrated,
Animated feature film
Nominees:
Flow
Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, and Gregory Zalcman
Inside Out 2
Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen
Memoir of a Snail
Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham, and Richard Beek
The Wild Robot
Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
What will win: Flow. It’s a stunning work of imagination.
What should win: Memoir of a Snail. An absolute gut punch of (semi) autobiographical storytelling.
Animated short film
Nominees:
Beautiful Men
Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi
Magic Candies
Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio
Wander to Wonder
Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
Yuck!
Loïc Espuche And Juliette Marquet
What will win: In the Shadow of the Cypress. It’s the kind of metaphorical storytelling the voters love.
What should win: In the Shadow of the Cypress has the strongest animation.
Cinematography
Nominees:
The Brutalist
Lol Crawley
Dune: Part Two
Greig Fraser
Emilia Pérez
Paul Guilhaume
Maria
Ed Lachman
Nosferatu
Jarin Blaschke
Who will win: Crawley for The Brutalist. I felt completely transported to period NYC.
Who should win: Crawley. For The Brutalist. To look as good as it did on such a (relatively) small budget is a minor miracle.
Costume design
Nominees:
A Complete Unknown
Arianne Phillips
Conclave
Lisy Christl
Gladiator II
Janty Yates And Dave Crossman
Nosferatu
Linda Muir
Wicked
Paul Tazewell
Who will win: Tazewell for Wicked. It’s bright, colorful and eye-catching in the way voters love.
Who should win: Muir. You can smell the costumes in Nosferatu from home.
Directing
Nominees:
Anora
Sean Baker
The Brutalist
Brady Corbet
A Complete Unknown
James Mangold
Emilia Pérez
Jacques Audiard
The Substance
Coralie Fargeat
Who will win: Corbet. His work on The Brutalist is massive. Most people aren’t as in love with the film as I am, but I think his work here is legendary.
Who should win: Corbet, but I would still be so happy if Baker or Fargeat won. All of their work is seminal.
Documentary feature film
Nominees:
Black Box Diaries
Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari, and Hanna Aqvilin
No Other Land
Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal, and Yuval Abraham
Porcelain War
Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska, and Paula DuPré Pesmen
Soundtrack to a Coup D’etat
Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius, and Rémi Grellety
Sugarcane
Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie, and Kellen Quinn
What will win: No Other Land. Timely and important.
What should win: No Other Land. It’s not even close.
Documentary short film
Nominees:
Death By Numbers
Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard
I am Ready, Warden
Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
Incident
Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven
Instruments of a Beating Heart
Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington
What will win: I Am Ready, Warden. Powerful and thought-provoking.
What should win: Incident, but I Am Ready, Warden is almost as good.
Film editing
Nominees:
Anora
Sean Baker
The Brutalist
David Jancso
Conclave
Nick Emerson
Emilia Pérez
Juliette Welfling
Wicked
Myron Kerstein
Who will win: Sean Baker for Anora. He built that movie in the editing room.
Who should win: Baker’s work is virtuosic, but so is the editing on Conclave and The Brutalist. Any of these three deserve the win.
International feature film
Nominees:
Brazil
I’m Still Here
Denmark
The Girl With The Needle
France
Emilia Pérez
Germany
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Latvia
Flow
What will win: I’m scared Emilia Pérez will win, but backlash has been so intense that I think it will go to The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
What should win: It doesn’t stand a chance but The Girl with the Needle felt like the most groundbreaking effort.
Makeup and hairstyling
Nominees:
A Different Man
Mike Marino, David Presto, and Crystal Jurado
Emilia Pérez
Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier, and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
Nosferatu
David White, Traci Loader, and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
The Substance
Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli
Wicked
Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, and Sarah Nuth
What will win: The team behind Wicked will take it because the movie became a pop-cultural phenomenon and because they did bracingly original work.
What should win: The Substance. The trio’s work runs the entire table from grotesque to glamorous and makes it look so good.
Music (original score)
Nominees:
The Brutalist
Daniel Blumberg
Conclave
Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Pérez
Clément Ducol And Camille
Wicked
John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
The Wild Robot
Kris Bowers
Who will win: Powell and Schwartz for Wicked. People have been humming this movie for months.
Who should win: The Brutalist has an old-school score like they did back in the 1940s and Conclave builds the entire tone of the film through the score. But the real best score of the year is Trent Reznor’s and Atticus Ross’s work on Challengers.
Music (original song)
Nominees:
“El Mal”
From Emilia Pérez; music by Clément Ducol and Camille; lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard
“The Journey”
From The Six Triple Eight; music and lyrics by Diane Warren
“Like a Bird”
From Sing Sing; music and lyrics by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
“Mi Camino”
From Emilia Pérez; music and lyrics by Camille and Clément Ducol
“Never Too Late”
From Elton John: Never Too Late; music and lyrics by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt, and Bernie Taupin
What will win: “Like a Bird.” I think the voters want Sing Sing to win something.
What should win: “Like a Bird.” I want Sing Sing to win something.
Production design
Nominees:
The Brutalist
Judy Becker; set decoration: Patricia Cuccia
Conclave
Suzie Davies; set decoration: Cynthia Sleiter
Dune: Part Two
Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Shane Vieau
Nosferatu
Craig Lathrop; set decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
Wicked
Nathan Crowley; set decoration: Lee Sandales
What will win: Wicked. The team behind Wicked did some genuinely lovely design here, if a little repetitive.
What should win: Nosferatu. You can smell the streets from home.
Live action short film
Nominees:
A Lien
Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz
Anuja
Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai
I’m Not a Robot
Victoria Warmerdam and Trent
The Last Ranger
Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek
What will win: A Lien. The topicality is immediate.
What should win: I’m Not a Robot, simply because I helped select it for the Bend Film Festival.
Sound
Nominees:
A Complete Unknown
Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, and David Giammarco
Dune: Part Two
Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill
Emilia Pérez
Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz And Niels Barletta
Wicked
Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis
The Wild Robot
Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo, and Leff Lefferts
What will win: Dune: Part Two, but Wicked could squeak by.
What should win: Dune: Part Two because there are sounds in this film that have never existed before this brilliant team invented them.
Visual effects
Nominees:
Alien: Romulus
Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Mahan
Better Man
Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, and Peter Stubbs
Dune: Part Two
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, and Rodney Burke
Wicked
Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould
What will win: Dune: Part Two. The work with scale here is astonishing.
What should win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: There are multiple characters in the film that fully command your empathy and they don’t exist outside of a computer.
Writing (adapted screenplay)
Nominees:
A Complete Unknown
Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave
Screenplay by Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez
Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; in Collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys
Screenplay by Ramell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing
Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; story Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield
Who will win: Peter Straughan for Conclave. He shines light on a world most people don’t know while making it fun and exciting at the same time.
Who should win: Conclave, but my heart is rooting for Sing Sing.
Writing (original screenplay)
Nominees:
Anora
Written by Sean Baker
The Brutalist
Written by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain
Written by Jesse Eisenberg
September 5
Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
The Substance
Written by Coralie Fargeat
Who will win: Sean Baker for Anora. The script is beautiful and, even with the issues I have, it’s probably the best of his career.
Who should win: Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. She made a primal scream of a feminist masterpiece and buried it inside a fun and disgusting monster movie. A singular, unforgettable work.
Best picture
Nominees:
Anora
Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, producers
The Brutalist
Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim, and Brady Corbet, producers
A Complete Unknown
Fred Berger, James Mangold, and Alex Heineman, producers
Conclave
Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell, and Michael A. Jackman, producers
Dune: Part Two
Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, and Denis Villeneuve, producers
Emilia Pérez
Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, producers
I’m Still Here
Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, producers
Nickel Boys
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Joslyn Barnes, producers
The Substance
Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan, and Eric Fellner, producers
Wicked
Marc Platt, producer
What will win: It’s either Anora or The Brutalist. I think Anora has the momentum but The Brutalist works better as a movie. I think Anora wins by a hair.
What should win: Anything but Emilia. In my heart I know The Substance is my favorite, but doesn’t stand a chance. The Brutalist should win, as it’s a monumental work of artistic vision that moves me even just thinking about it. Although, if/when Anora wins, I’ll raise a glass to Baker anyway.
