In the campaign to win the Republican presidential nomination, Michigan is suddenly relevant.

For Mitt Romney, whose father served six successful years as the state's governor, victory in his native state seemed all but assured back in January. 

Now, the former Massachusetts governor and corporate takeover specialist is facing a critical test as Michigan's Republican voters prepare for the Feb. 28 primary election. 

Lose here — in a state where he won the 2008 primary and, until recently, appeared to have an insurmountable advantage this time around — and the Romney campaign will limp away, badly wounded. 

If that happens, according to a pair of respected Michigan political observers, we could possibly see something that hasn't occurred in more than a half century: a "brokered" Republican National Convention where no candidate comes in with enough delegates to win the nomination in the first round of voting.

Should that occur, well, all bets could be off in terms of whom the GOP chooses to challenge President Barack Obama come November.

But don't go speculating too much just yet about potential dark horses waiting in the GOP stables for a surprise run.

 

As the now hotly contested Michigan primary race shows, the free-for-all that is this year's Republican presidential nominating process can quickly make what passes for conventional political wisdom seem surprisingly foolish.

Only three weeks ago, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's campaign appeared to be flirting with complete irrelevance. After a strong Jan. 3 showing in the Iowa caucuses, where his brand of social conservatism plays well, Santorum's star faded to the point where some pundits were beginning to question how long he could stay in the race.

Since the start of the primary season, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has fended off one challenger after another from the party's right wing.

Candidates that gained support by waving their social-conservative credentials rose and fell in quick succession as the religious fundamentalists who form a key part of the GOP base kept searching for someone who was ABR — anyone but Romney. 

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and businessman Herman Cain all, in rapid succession, appeared to pose a serious threat to the more moderate Romney, and then quickly fell by the wayside.

Then it was former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who surged to the forefront (after rising and then falling in Iowa), using a strong debate performance to capture a decisive victory in South Carolina, giving him great momentum going into Florida, a state rich in delegates.

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